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| 12/28/2005 4:00:00 AM | Email this article • Print this article
Comment on this article | Sobering conclusion: We’re not ready for tsunami
By KATE RAMSAYER
East Oregonian Publishing
A year ago Monday, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, sent a devastating tsunami around the Indian Ocean, killing more than 200,000 people and leveling coastal towns.
While the event was half a world away, destructive tsunamis aren’t foreign to the Pacific Northwest — they’ve happened here in the past and are sure to happen again. But even though the Sumatra disaster highlighted the vulnerability of the Northwest, coastal residents are still not prepared for a massive wave, some scientists and educators say.
“I’m fairly shocked at the disconnect between what we know in the science of tsunamis and what we know and do about it in terms of the human response and behavior,” said Pat Corcoran, a coastal hazards educator with the Oregon State University Extension Service in Astoria.
While there may be more buoys and an improved warning system, Corcoran said he fears that many people still don’t know what to do after a warning or a major earthquake.
What is knownWhat scientists know is that the geology off the Oregon and Washington coasts closely mirrors the geology off Sumatra. Both feature a subduction zone, the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the case of the Pacific Northwest, where one plate of Earth’s crust is trying to push under another. Instead of moving, they are locked in place, building up pressure. When the pressure gets too great, the fault snaps, generating a massive earthquake. This shaking of the sea floor creates massive ocean waves.
“We can learn a lot about Cascadia from looking at what happened in Sumatra,” said Chris Goldfinger, a marine geologist and associate professor at Oregon State University. He’s studying the details of the Sumatra quake, looking at where the release of energy came from and when, trying to improve the understanding of how faults crack.
“As the model of where the earthquake rupture came from gets better, than their models of tsunami hazards get better,” Goldfinger said. And as tsunami models get better, he said, people along the coast can place more confidence in the inundation maps based on the models.
Goldfinger said that while the December 2004 disaster provided geological data, for him the main effect was to illuminate the gap between the science and policy and planning.
“I see more of an urgency to not only doing the science, but getting the information out there, and connecting the science to the action and the planning that will do some good,” he said.
Apply the researchAt OSU’s department of civil engineering, Edwards Professor Harry Yeh agrees that there is a need for scientists to not only do basic research, but figure out how to apply the research to help people.
“If you’re talking about saving lives, we really have to require some activity at the local level,” Yeh said. He is developing computer models to simulate both the tsunami and how people might react to it. With the help of local planners and policy makers, he said, scientists can identify and tackle problems like designing a tsunami-resistant shelter on low-lying areas here on the Peninsula and how to alleviate evacuation bottlenecks.
The Sumatra tsunami emphasized these issues, he said, although researchers were studying and modeling the inevitable local tsunami before the event.
Katrina’s ‘good’ sideBut it was another recent natural disaster that brought home the importance of listening to scientists’ predictions, Goldfinger said.
“In a way, Katrina has helped,” he said. “In the scientific community it was well known that was going to happen, there were studies that predicted it, yet they were widely ignored because the fixes for those things were expensive, inconvenient ...”
“Here we are in Cascadia with the same situation. All of us in the scientific community know it’s going to happen, we can’t say when, and unlike in a hurricane we can’t give three days warning.”
Tsunami sirens and evacuation routes are just the beginning, he said. To prepare the region, people need to be educated on what to do, and tsunami shelters should be built or strengthened for people who can’t evacuate. In Japan, they’re building schools on the coast that could also double as shelters.
“They’re thinking realistically,” he said. “Their society seems to be more prone to being able to think about the benefits to society in the longer term.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has put in additional buoys to improve the warning system, but those kinds of improvements are only useful here if the tsunami is from a distant earthquake, such as one off Alaska or Japan, Goldfinger said. The bigger problem is with a quake off the coast.
Sirens will be unnecessary if the Cascadia fault goes — a magnitude 8 or 9 earthquake that could last for three to five minutes will warn of the coming tsunami.
“I think we need a balance between things like sirens and education,” said Corcoran. “And right now, the balance is completely on tools: buoys and sirens and this kind of stuff.”
He’s trying to shift the balance more towards education.
What you need to know“The thing about tsunami education is that there isn’t that much to know,” he said, listing three things people need to do to prepare. He said that the first is to know the difference between a distant and a local event — “One’s inconvenient and one’s a nightmare.”
The quick and easy way to separate the two, though, is to ask yourself “Did you hear it or did you feel it,” he said. Hearing a siren, or an announcement on a NOAA weather radio, is good news, Corcoran said. That means it’s a distant event, and there’s probably a few hours before the tsunami hits for people in evacuation zones to follow the directions of emergency management personnel and get to higher ground.
On the ground: runningIn a local event, there’s much more urgency. Once the ground stops shaking, the tsunami could be 20 minutes away, so people need to run, he said. Roads and most bridges will be destroyed from the quake, he said, so driving will probably not be an option.
The second thing to know is which areas are safe, he said. Inundation maps are available from Pacific County Emergency management’s Web site — (www.co.pacific.wa.us/pcema/Tsunami.htm) — as well as the Chinook Observer office, and people should use them to determine how they can get up as high as they can while avoiding obstacles like rivers.
Have a family planCorcoran’s third point is that people need to have a communication plan in place. Tsunamis aren’t necessarily going to happen when everyone is at home, and families could be separated. Phones will be jammed if there’s a distant event, and out of commission if it’s a local event. But families should agree on an out-of-town friend or relative who everyone will check in with as soon as possible after a tsunami, he said.
“When you’re talking about tsunamis and evacuating a town or area, it becomes critical that the people already know or already have a plan as to what they’re going to do,” Seaside City Manager Mark Winstanley. “That’s not the time you want to be educating people on what they need to do.”
There’s a perception among some people that the police or fire department will come get them, he said, but that’s not going to be possible, especially in a local event. People need to make arrangements with neighbors — that’s one way neighborhood coordinators can help residents prepare.
Preparing for the possibility of a massive earthquake and tsunami is something that should go hand in hand with life on the Pacific Northwest Coast, Corcoran said. “A measure of your responsibility is that you know what (potential disasters) are, know what the impacts are, and know what you and your family need to do under those circumstances.
“And then let it go, enjoy the beach.”
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Reader Comments
Posted: Saturday, December 31, 2005
Article comment by:
Timothy Walsh
I think it is important to recognize how much educational activity takes place at the local level. Stephanie Fritts, the Director of Emergency Management, has worked tirelessly to educate the citizens of Pacific County about the local tsunami hazards, the warning signals of an impending tsunami, and the appropriate response. With Sheriff Didion's support, she has held numerous public meetings and workshops throughout the county, posted tsunami hazard and evacuation route signs, established assembly areas for tsunami evacuees, and testified before Congress about the local needs for tsunami preparedness. I recommend that you recognize and support her efforts on behalf of the citizens of and visitors to Pacific County.
Posted: Friday, December 30, 2005
Article comment by:
Stephanie Fritts
The PCEMA website does not feature inundation maps as your article states. It does however provide evacuation maps for various areas of Pacific County. Inundation maps are available in zip file format from the Washington State Dept of Natural Resources website.
Stephanie Fritts
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